Estimating Causal Effects from Panel Data with Dynamic Multivariate Panel Models

Abstract Panel data are ubiquitous in scientific domains such as sociology and econometrics. Various modeling approaches have been presented for the causal inference based on such data, including Markov models, cross-lagged panel models, and their extensions. Existing panel data modeling approaches typically impose some restrictive assumptions on the data-generating process, such as Gaussian responses, effects that are constant in time, and ability to consider only short-term causal effects.

Spatio-temporal modeling of co-dynamics of smallpox, measles and pertussis in pre-healthcare Finland

Abstract Infections are known to interact as previous infections may have an effect on risk of succumbing to a new infection. The co-dynamics can be mediated by immunosuppression or -modulation, shared environmental or climatic drivers, or competition for susceptible hosts. Research and statistical methods in epidemiology often concentrate on large pooled datasets, or high quality data from cities, leaving rural areas underrepresented in literature. Data considering rural populations are typically sparse and scarce, especially in the case of historical data sources, which may introduce considerable methodological challenges.

By Tiia-Maria Pasanen,Jouni Helske, Harri Högmander and Tarmo Ketola in Bayesian Inference

October 10, 2023

A modern approach to transition analysis and process mining with Markov models: A tutorial with R

Abstract This chapter presents an introduction to Markovian modeling for the analysis of sequence data. Contrary to the deterministic approach seen in the previous sequence analysis chapters, Markovian models are probabilistic models, focusing on the transitions between states instead of studying sequences as a whole. The chapter provides an introduction to this method and differentiates between its most common variations: first-order Markov models, hidden Markov models, mixture Markov models, and mixture hidden Markov models.

By Jouni Helske and Satu Helske and Mohammed Saqr and Sonsoles López-Pernas and Keefe Murphy in Hidden Markov models

September 2, 2023

Clustering and Structural Robustness in Causal Diagrams

Abstract Graphs are commonly used to represent and visualize causal relations. For a small number of variables, this approach provides a succinct and clear view of the scenario at hand. As the number of variables under study increases, the graphical approach may become impractical, and the clarity of the representation is lost. Clustering of variables is a natural way to reduce the size of the causal diagram, but it may erroneously change the essential properties of the causal relations if implemented arbitrarily.

By Santtu Tikka, Jouni Helske and Juha Karvanen in Causal Inference

August 8, 2023

Price Optimization Combining Conjoint Data and Purchase History: A Causal Modeling Approach

Abstract Pricing decisions of companies require an understanding of the causal effect of a price change on the demand. When real-life pricing experiments are infeasible, data-driven decision-making must be based on alternative data sources such as purchase history (sales data) and conjoint studies where a group of customers is asked to make imaginary purchases in an artificial setup. We present an approach for price optimization that combines population statistics, purchase history and conjoint data in a systematic way.